Markets/California/San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad

San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA Real Estate Market 2026

Investor-grade market analytics for San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, California. Data from Zillow ZHVI, FRED, Census ACS, and FEMA NRI. Updated monthly.

Median Home Price

$904,313

-2.2% year-over-year

Est. Rental Yield

3.8%

gross annual

12-Month Forecast

-6.1%

base case (Zillow ZHVF)

-6.1% year-over-year

San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad Market Summary

San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA is experiencing a correction with -2.2% year-over-year decline, signaling a buyer's market with softening demand. Affordability pressure is significant: the price-to-income ratio of 8.84x well exceeds the national average of 4.8x. Net negative migration (-8,486 returns/year) is reducing housing demand pressure. Climate risk is elevated (90/100), which may impact insurance costs and long-term property values. Rental yield of 3.81% is below average, suggesting this market is more suited for appreciation-driven strategies.

Affordability

Affordability Score17/100
Price-to-Income Ratio8.8x (national avg 4.8x)
Median Household Income$102,285

Price Forecast Scenarios

12-month projection (Zillow ZHVF model)

Bear Case-9.2%
Base Case-6.1%
Bull Case-3.1%

Climate & Natural Hazard Risk

San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA's primary climate exposure is flooding (90/100). The composite climate risk score of 90/100 (High) indicates overall risk which may increase insurance premiums and impact property values over time. Buyers should consider climate-related insurance costs and potential future regulatory changes.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index

Get the full San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad dataset

Migration flows, ZIP-level neighborhood data, full demographics, price history, and the Market Screener.

San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad Real Estate Market Data 2026 | Lotlytics | Lotlytics