Markets/Hawaii/Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina

Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI Real Estate Market 2026

Investor-grade market analytics for Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, Hawaii. Data from Zillow ZHVI, FRED, Census ACS, and FEMA NRI. Data through August 2026.

Median Home Price

$987,622

-3.3% year-over-year

Est. Rental Yield

3.9%

gross annual

12-Month Forecast

-3.3%

base case (Zillow ZHVF)

-3.3% year-over-year

Climate Risk

50/100

Moderate

Market Momentum

❄️
Cooling
12.3mo supply · Score -2/7

Net migration: Bottom 10% nationally

Income Migration

💰 Wealth Influx1.16x

In-migrants avg $106,509 AGI vs out-migrants $91,602

🏛️

Opportunity Zone Market

5 ZIP codes in Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina are designated Qualified Opportunity Zones (IRC 1400Z-2), eligible for capital gains tax deferral on qualifying investments. Learn more →

Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina Market Summary

Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI is experiencing a correction with -3.3% year-over-year decline, signaling a buyer's market with softening demand. Affordability pressure is significant: the price-to-income ratio of 10.39x well exceeds the national average of 4.8x. Climate risk is moderate (50/100) with manageable exposure. Rental yield of 3.94% is below average, suggesting this market is more suited for appreciation-driven strategies.

Affordability

0
Price-to-Income Ratio10.4x (national avg 4.8x)
Median Household Income$95,049

Price Forecast Scenarios

12-month projection (Zillow ZHVF model)

Bear Case-5.0%
Base Case-3.3%
Bull Case-1.7%

Climate & Natural Hazard Risk

Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI's primary climate exposure is flooding (70/100). The composite climate risk score of 50/100 (Moderate) indicates overall risk with manageable exposure that should be factored into investment analysis. Buyers should consider climate-related insurance costs and potential future regulatory changes.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index

Get the full Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina dataset

Migration flows, ZIP-level neighborhood data, full demographics, price history, and the Market Screener.