Napa, CA Real Estate Market 2026

Investor-grade market analytics for Napa, California. Data from Zillow ZHVI, FRED, Census ACS, and FEMA NRI. Updated monthly.

Median Home Price

$885,565

-2.8% year-over-year

Est. Rental Yield

3.8%

gross annual

12-Month Forecast

-5.9%

base case (Zillow ZHVF)

-5.9% year-over-year

Market Momentum

❄️
Cooling
5.5mo supply · Score -2/7

Migration: Top 91% nationally

Income Migration

💰 Wealth Influx1.53x

In-migrants avg $138,599 AGI vs out-migrants $90,747

🏛️

Opportunity Zone Market

2 ZIP codes in Napa are designated Qualified Opportunity Zones (IRC 1400Z-2), eligible for capital gains tax deferral on qualifying investments. Learn more →

Napa Market Summary

Napa, CA is experiencing a correction with -2.8% year-over-year decline, signaling a buyer's market with softening demand. Affordability pressure is significant: the price-to-income ratio of 8.13x well exceeds the national average of 4.8x. Climate risk is elevated (70/100), which may impact insurance costs and long-term property values. Rental yield of 3.81% is below average, suggesting this market is more suited for appreciation-driven strategies.

Affordability

Affordability Score27/100
Price-to-Income Ratio8.1x (national avg 4.8x)
Median Household Income$108,970

Price Forecast Scenarios

12-month projection (Zillow ZHVF model)

Bear Case-8.8%
Base Case-5.9%
Bull Case-2.9%

Climate & Natural Hazard Risk

Napa, CA's primary climate exposure is flooding (70/100). The composite climate risk score of 70/100 (High) indicates overall risk which may increase insurance premiums and impact property values over time. Buyers should consider climate-related insurance costs and potential future regulatory changes.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index

Get the full Napa dataset

Migration flows, ZIP-level neighborhood data, full demographics, price history, and the Market Screener.