Investor-grade market analytics for Modesto, California. Data from Zillow ZHVI, FRED, Census ACS, and FEMA NRI. Updated monthly.
$469,758
-0.8% year-over-year
5.2%
gross annual
-5.9%
base case (Zillow ZHVF)
-5.9% year-over-year
Migration: Top 33% nationally
In-migrants avg $61,306 AGI vs out-migrants $61,295
Opportunity Zone Market
13 ZIP codes in Modesto are designated Qualified Opportunity Zones (IRC 1400Z-2), eligible for capital gains tax deferral on qualifying investments. Learn more →
Modesto, CA is experiencing a correction with -0.8% year-over-year decline, signaling a buyer's market with softening demand. Affordability is moderately stretched with a price-to-income ratio of 5.9x, above the national average of 4.8x. Modest net positive migration (+67 returns/year) provides steady demand support. Climate risk is elevated (70/100), which may impact insurance costs and long-term property values. Rental yield of 5.22% is moderate, offering acceptable cash flow for leveraged investments.
12-month projection (Zillow ZHVF model)
Modesto, CA's primary climate exposure is flooding (70/100). The composite climate risk score of 70/100 (High) indicates overall risk which may increase insurance premiums and impact property values over time. Buyers should consider climate-related insurance costs and potential future regulatory changes.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index
Migration flows, ZIP-level neighborhood data, full demographics, price history, and the Market Screener.