Merced, CA Real Estate Market 2026

Investor-grade market analytics for Merced, California. Data from Zillow ZHVI, FRED, Census ACS, and FEMA NRI. Updated monthly.

Median Home Price

$409,515

-2.0% year-over-year

Est. Rental Yield

5.4%

gross annual

12-Month Forecast

-6.1%

base case (Zillow ZHVF)

-6.1% year-over-year

Merced Market Summary

Merced, CA is experiencing a correction with -2.0% year-over-year decline, signaling a buyer's market with softening demand. Affordability pressure is significant: the price-to-income ratio of 6.3x well exceeds the national average of 4.8x. Modest net positive migration (+479 returns/year) provides steady demand support. Climate risk is elevated (70/100), which may impact insurance costs and long-term property values. Rental yield of 5.43% is moderate, offering acceptable cash flow for leveraged investments.

Affordability

Affordability Score53/100
Price-to-Income Ratio6.3x (national avg 4.8x)
Median Household Income$65,044

Price Forecast Scenarios

12-month projection (Zillow ZHVF model)

Bear Case-9.2%
Base Case-6.1%
Bull Case-3.1%

Climate & Natural Hazard Risk

Merced, CA's primary climate exposure is flooding (70/100). The composite climate risk score of 70/100 (High) indicates overall risk which may increase insurance premiums and impact property values over time. Buyers should consider climate-related insurance costs and potential future regulatory changes.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index

Get the full Merced dataset

Migration flows, ZIP-level neighborhood data, full demographics, price history, and the Market Screener.

Merced Real Estate Market Data 2026 | Lotlytics | Lotlytics