Waco, TX Real Estate Market 2026

Investor-grade market analytics for Waco, Texas. Data from Zillow ZHVI, FRED, Census ACS, and FEMA NRI. Updated monthly.

Median Home Price

$258,697

-0.6% year-over-year

Est. Rental Yield

6.6%

gross annual

12-Month Forecast

-5.9%

base case (Zillow ZHVF)

-5.9% year-over-year

Market Momentum

➡️
Neutral
4.1mo supply · Score 0/7

Migration: Top 43% nationally

Income Migration

➡️ Neutral1.09x

In-migrants avg $62,399 AGI vs out-migrants $57,137

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Opportunity Zone Market

10 ZIP codes in Waco are designated Qualified Opportunity Zones (IRC 1400Z-2), eligible for capital gains tax deferral on qualifying investments. Learn more →

Waco Market Summary

Waco, TX is experiencing a correction with -0.6% year-over-year decline, signaling a buyer's market with softening demand. Affordability remains favorable with a price-to-income ratio of 4.05x, below the national average of 4.8x. Modest net positive migration (+29 returns/year) provides steady demand support. Climate risk remains low (30/100), favorable for long-term investment stability. Rental yield of 6.63% is strong, making this market attractive for buy-and-hold investors.

Affordability

Affordability Score85/100
Price-to-Income Ratio4.0x (national avg 4.8x)
Median Household Income$63,880

Price Forecast Scenarios

12-month projection (Zillow ZHVF model)

Bear Case-8.8%
Base Case-5.9%
Bull Case-2.9%

Climate & Natural Hazard Risk

Waco, TX's primary climate exposure is tornadoes (60/100). The composite climate risk score of 30/100 (Low) indicates overall risk reflecting favorable conditions for long-term real estate investment. This market benefits from relatively low natural hazard exposure compared to coastal and wildfire-prone regions.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index

Get the full Waco dataset

Migration flows, ZIP-level neighborhood data, full demographics, price history, and the Market Screener.