Markets/Arizona/Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler

Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ Real Estate Market 2026

Investor-grade market analytics for Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, Arizona. Data from Zillow ZHVI, FRED, Census ACS, and FEMA NRI. Updated monthly.

Median Home Price

$442,406

-2.9% year-over-year

Est. Rental Yield

4.7%

gross annual

12-Month Forecast

-6.1%

base case (Zillow ZHVF)

-6.1% year-over-year

Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler Market Summary

Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ is experiencing a correction with -2.9% year-over-year decline, signaling a buyer's market with softening demand. Affordability is moderately stretched with a price-to-income ratio of 5.22x, above the national average of 4.8x. Strong net positive migration (+15,300 returns/year) reflects sustained population inflows driving housing demand. Climate risk is elevated (70/100), which may impact insurance costs and long-term property values. Rental yield of 4.66% is moderate, offering acceptable cash flow for leveraged investments.

Affordability

Affordability Score68/100
Price-to-Income Ratio5.2x (national avg 4.8x)
Median Household Income$84,703

Price Forecast Scenarios

12-month projection (Zillow ZHVF model)

Bear Case-9.2%
Base Case-6.1%
Bull Case-3.1%

Climate & Natural Hazard Risk

Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ's primary climate exposure is flooding (80/100). The composite climate risk score of 70/100 (High) indicates overall risk which may increase insurance premiums and impact property values over time. Buyers should consider climate-related insurance costs and potential future regulatory changes.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index

Get the full Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler dataset

Migration flows, ZIP-level neighborhood data, full demographics, price history, and the Market Screener.

Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler Real Estate Market Data 2026 | Lotlytics | Lotlytics