Markets/Arizona/Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler

Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ Real Estate Market 2026

Investor-grade market analytics for Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, Arizona. Data from Zillow ZHVI, FRED, Census ACS, and FEMA NRI. Updated monthly.

Median Home Price

$447,054

-1.7% year-over-year

Est. Rental Yield

4.7%

gross annual

12-Month Forecast

-5.9%

base case (Zillow ZHVF)

-5.9% year-over-year

Market Momentum

➡️
Neutral
3.5mo supply · Score 0/7

Migration: Top 0% nationally

Income Migration

💰 Wealth Influx1.15x

In-migrants avg $92,142 AGI vs out-migrants $80,228

🏛️

Opportunity Zone Market

68 ZIP codes in Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler are designated Qualified Opportunity Zones (IRC 1400Z-2), eligible for capital gains tax deferral on qualifying investments. Learn more →

Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler Market Summary

Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ is experiencing a correction with -1.7% year-over-year decline, signaling a buyer's market with softening demand. Affordability is moderately stretched with a price-to-income ratio of 5.28x, above the national average of 4.8x. Strong net positive migration (+13,192 returns/year) reflects sustained population inflows driving housing demand. Climate risk is elevated (70/100), which may impact insurance costs and long-term property values. Rental yield of 4.65% is moderate, offering acceptable cash flow for leveraged investments.

Affordability

Affordability Score67/100
Price-to-Income Ratio5.3x (national avg 4.8x)
Median Household Income$84,703

Price Forecast Scenarios

12-month projection (Zillow ZHVF model)

Bear Case-8.8%
Base Case-5.9%
Bull Case-2.9%

Climate & Natural Hazard Risk

Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ's primary climate exposure is flooding (80/100). The composite climate risk score of 70/100 (High) indicates overall risk which may increase insurance premiums and impact property values over time. Buyers should consider climate-related insurance costs and potential future regulatory changes.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index

Get the full Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler dataset

Migration flows, ZIP-level neighborhood data, full demographics, price history, and the Market Screener.