Markets/Tennessee/McMinnville

McMinnville, TN Real Estate Market 2026

Investor-grade market analytics for McMinnville, Tennessee. Data from Zillow ZHVI, FRED, Census ACS, and FEMA NRI. Data through August 2026.

Median Home Price

$259,787

+2.1% year-over-year

Est. Rental Yield

5.0%

gross annual

12-Month Forecast

+2.1%

base case (Zillow ZHVF)

+2.1% year-over-year

Climate Risk

25/100

Low

Market Momentum

➡️
Neutral
4.2mo supply · Score -1/7

Net migration: Top 32% nationally

Income Migration

💰 Wealth Influx1.23x

In-migrants avg $51,339 AGI vs out-migrants $41,750

🏛️

Opportunity Zone Market

3 ZIP codes in McMinnville are designated Qualified Opportunity Zones (IRC 1400Z-2), eligible for capital gains tax deferral on qualifying investments. Learn more →

McMinnville Market Summary

McMinnville, TN shows steady growth at 2.1% year-over-year appreciation, reflecting balanced market conditions with moderate demand. Affordability remains favorable with a price-to-income ratio of 4.8x, below the national average of 4.8x. Modest net positive migration (+71 returns/year) provides steady demand support. Climate risk remains low (25/100), favorable for long-term investment stability. Rental yield of 4.96% is moderate, offering acceptable cash flow for leveraged investments.

Affordability

Affordability Score74/100
Price-to-Income Ratio4.8x (national avg 4.8x)
Median Household Income$54,088

Price Forecast Scenarios

12-month projection (Zillow ZHVF model)

Bear Case+1.0%
Base Case+2.1%
Bull Case+3.1%

Climate & Natural Hazard Risk

McMinnville, TN's primary climate exposure is tornadoes (50/100). The composite climate risk score of 25/100 (Low) indicates overall risk reflecting favorable conditions for long-term real estate investment. This market benefits from relatively low natural hazard exposure compared to coastal and wildfire-prone regions.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index

Get the full McMinnville dataset

Migration flows, ZIP-level neighborhood data, full demographics, price history, and the Market Screener.