Markets/Tennessee/Johnson City

Johnson City, TN Real Estate Market 2026

Investor-grade market analytics for Johnson City, Tennessee. Data from Zillow ZHVI, FRED, Census ACS, and FEMA NRI. Data through July 2026.

Median Home Price

$284,806

+1.0% year-over-year

Est. Rental Yield

6.2%

gross annual

12-Month Forecast

+1.0%

base case (Zillow ZHVF)

+1.0% year-over-year

Climate Risk

20/100

Very Low

Market Momentum

➡️
Neutral
3.2mo supply · Score 0/7

Net migration: Top 26% nationally

Income Migration

📉 Wealth Drain0.81x

In-migrants avg $54,666 AGI vs out-migrants $67,312

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Opportunity Zone Market

7 ZIP codes in Johnson City are designated Qualified Opportunity Zones (IRC 1400Z-2), eligible for capital gains tax deferral on qualifying investments. Learn more →

Johnson City Market Summary

Johnson City, TN is in a stabilization phase with 1.0% year-over-year appreciation, suggesting cooling demand and a shift toward balanced conditions. Affordability is moderately stretched with a price-to-income ratio of 5.08x, above the national average of 4.8x. Modest net positive migration (+133 returns/year) provides steady demand support. Climate risk remains low (20/100), favorable for long-term investment stability. Rental yield of 6.18% is strong, making this market attractive for buy-and-hold investors.

Affordability

Affordability Score70/100
Price-to-Income Ratio5.1x (national avg 4.8x)
Median Household Income$56,096

Price Forecast Scenarios

12-month projection (Zillow ZHVF model)

Bear Case+0.5%
Base Case+1.0%
Bull Case+1.6%

Climate & Natural Hazard Risk

Johnson City, TN's primary climate exposure is wind storms (55/100). The composite climate risk score of 20/100 (Low) indicates overall risk reflecting favorable conditions for long-term real estate investment. This market benefits from relatively low natural hazard exposure compared to coastal and wildfire-prone regions.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index

Get the full Johnson City dataset

Migration flows, ZIP-level neighborhood data, full demographics, price history, and the Market Screener.