Where Americans Are Moving in 2026: IRS Migration Data Reveals the Winners

Every year, the IRS publishes county-to-county migration data based on tax return filings. It's one of the most reliable sources for tracking where Americans are actually moving — not where surveys say they want to move, but where they filed their taxes the following year.

We analyzed this data across all 392 metropolitan statistical areas on Lotlytics to identify the metros gaining and losing the most residents. The results reveal clear patterns that every real estate investor should understand.

The Big Picture: Sun Belt Dominance Continues

The Sun Belt migration wave that accelerated during COVID hasn't reversed — it's evolved. While the initial pandemic-era rush was driven by remote work and lockdown fatigue, today's migration patterns reflect something more structural:

• Cost of living arbitrage — Movers are leaving metros where housing costs consume 40%+ of income
• Tax migration — States with no income tax (FL, TX, TN, NV) continue to pull residents from high-tax states
• Employment decentralization — Employers opening satellite offices in secondary metros, validating the move

Top 5 Metros by Net Migration

1. Dallas-Fort Worth, TX

DFW continues to dominate net in-migration. The metro added more net new residents than any other U.S. metro, driven by corporate relocations (Toyota, Charles Schwab, Caterpillar), no state income tax, and a median home value still well below the national average for a metro of its size.

Investment signal: Strong population growth supports both rental demand and long-term appreciation. Watch for emerging submarkets in Frisco, McKinney, and Celina where new infrastructure is being built.

2. Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL

Florida's Gulf Coast continues to attract movers from the Northeast and Midwest. Tampa combines relative affordability (compared to Miami), no state income tax, and a diversified economy anchored by healthcare, finance, and tech.

Investment signal: Tampa's rental market benefits from a steady stream of new arrivals who rent before buying. The metro's rental yield remains above the national average.

3. Nashville, TN

Nashville's appeal extends beyond country music. The metro's healthcare industry (HCA, Vanderbilt), tech growth, and cultural cachet make it a magnet for young professionals. Tennessee's zero income tax sweetens the deal.

Investment signal: Nashville's price-to-income ratio has stretched, making affordability a growing concern. Focus on surrounding counties (Williamson, Rutherford) where values are lower but migration spillover is strong.

4. Raleigh-Durham, NC

The Research Triangle continues to attract highly educated workers. With three major universities, a thriving biotech sector, and Apple's billion-dollar campus under construction, Raleigh-Durham is building a self-reinforcing talent ecosystem.

Investment signal: High-income in-migration supports premium rental rates. The metro's appreciation has been steady rather than volatile — a sign of sustainable growth.

5. Phoenix-Mesa, AZ

Phoenix remains a perennial migration winner, drawing residents from California with dramatically lower housing costs and a business-friendly environment. TSMC's semiconductor fabrication plants are adding a new dimension to the employment base.

Investment signal: Phoenix's inventory levels have been rising, which may moderate appreciation. But population growth provides a floor under demand.

Where Are People Leaving?

Migration is a zero-sum game. For every metro gaining residents, another is losing them. The metros with the highest net out-migration share common characteristics:

High-Cost Coastal Metros

• New York City metro — Consistently the largest source of out-migration by volume. High housing costs, high taxes, and remote work flexibility continue to push residents out.
• San Francisco-Oakland — Tech industry layoffs and $1.4M median home values have accelerated departures.
• Los Angeles — Cost of living, traffic, and wildfire risk are driving residents to Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Austin.

Struggling Midwest Industrial Cities

• Chicago — Illinois' fiscal challenges, property tax burden, and safety concerns drive out-migration despite a strong job market.
• Detroit — Despite a downtown renaissance, the broader metro continues to see net population loss.

What This Means for Investors

Migration data is a leading indicator for housing demand. Here's how to use it:

1. Follow the people, not the hype. Markets with sustained positive net migration have structural demand support. A market can't crash if more people keep showing up.

2. Watch the income profile. Not all migration is equal. Metros attracting high-income movers (Raleigh, Austin, Nashville) will see stronger appreciation than those attracting cost-of-living refugees alone.

3. Look for the second wave. When a primary metro gets expensive, migration spills into nearby secondary markets. This is happening now with Tampa → Lakeland, Nashville → Murfreesboro, and Dallas → Waco.

4. Combine with other signals. Migration alone isn't enough. Cross-reference with climate risk data, affordability metrics, and employment diversity for a complete picture.

Explore Migration Data on Lotlytics

Want to see the actual IRS migration flows for any of our 392 tracked metros? Our Migration page shows yearly inflow, outflow, and net migration with interactive charts — all powered by real IRS data.

You can also compare migration trends across markets on the Compare page or dive into individual metro profiles on our City pages.

Methodology

This analysis uses IRS Statistics of Income (SOI) county-to-county migration data, which tracks address changes on individual tax returns. We aggregate county-level flows to the metropolitan statistical area (CBSA) level for all 392 MSAs in our database.

IRS migration data has a ~2 year lag (the most recent available covers tax year 2022-2023 filings). While this means the data isn't real-time, it captures actual moves rather than survey-based intentions, making it the gold standard for domestic migration analysis.

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